How to gain victory in a revolution
The goal of a non-violent revolution is to replace dictatorship with democracy. This is achieved by neutralizing the opponents while activating your friends. The Ugandan society can be divided into 5 parts.
1. At the left you have the active supporters. They support the mission for freedom from dictatorship, and are active in contributing by activism, financial help, or other means. In Uganda, these are the opposition parties and activists like the Jobless Brotherhood.
2. The next segment are the passive supporters. They support the mission for freedom from dictatorship, but do not contribute to the cause. They might be unaware of your organization or actions, or somehow isolated (many students fall in this segment). They are easiest to transformed into active supporters, as they are already convinced of your mission.
3. The middle and by far largest segment are the neutrals. They are neither friend nor enemy. They are unaware or uninterested in the cause, focused on their lives and well-being of their families. They are not yet mobilized by either you, or your opponent.
4. The next segment are the passive opponents. They are against your mission (due to loyalty, fear, etc.), but do not act upon their beliefs. They are not active in undermining your actions, but they are not on your side.
5. The last segment are the active opponents, the dictatorship and it’s agents. They are actively fighting, undermining, and damaging your mission, in order to maintain the status quo of dictatorship.
In order to gain victory you only need to do 1 thing:
MOVE ALL SEGMENTS 1 SIDE TO THE LEFT.
You need to activate the passive supporters, convince the neutrals of your mission and make them passive supporters, while transform the passive opponents into neutrals.
You are not so interested in the active opponents, they will never join you. However, you can turn their agents (such as police, military, judiciary) into passive opponents, not actively undermining the struggle for freedom.
As soon as you achieve in bringing the majority 1 segment to the left (especially neutrals), you will achieve victory.
Erik van der Zanden
Picture by Sushil Nash